Record Lows For Distressed Sales
Blog, Market Updates, Real Estate News, Selling | Dunham Stewart
The real estate market has seen a continuing reduction in the volume of distressed properties seen in the housing market. The result has been a recent boost to home prices in many parts of the Southern California. Meanwhile, there is still uncertainty about the impact of next month’s national elections shich appears to be causing some would-be homebuyers to delay taking any action until after November, according to the October HousingPulse survey of real estate agents. The survey found that one major reason behind the rise in home prices is a fairly sharp drop in the share of distressed properties found in recent home sales. A drop in the share of distressed properties in the housing market is most obvious indicator contributing to lower leve er foreclosed properties or real estate owned (REO) being put up for sale by banks. The survey respondents reported in October that major banks appear to be keeping many REO properties off the market this year. But they also suggest banks may be looking to unload significant amounts of REO next year – a move that could put downward pressure on home prices.
Investor participation in the housing market dropped sharply in July, establishing a two-month trend and showing a clear reversal of long-term growth in investor purchases of residential properties. Investors need a deal and are having a hard time finding what they want. While investors often concentrate their purchases on distressed properties, the decline in investor purchases was also apparent in the non-distressed market. Investor participation in the housing market fell to 21.9 percent of all transactions in July, from 23.5 percent in June, based on a three-month moving average. Investor participation back in May of this year hit a two-year peak of 25.3 percent of all transactions. In contrast to investors, current homeowners showed strong interest in buying homes, accounting for 43.5 percent of home purchases in July, up from 40.3 percent in May and 42.0 percent in June.
Major California markets have cut inventory dramatically, reduced REOs and now are witnessing growing demand and improving prices. The state that gave America Alt-A loans, Countrywide, the first tidal wave of foreclosures, the highest prices during the boom and the fastest fall during the bust now is leading the nation out of the six-year housing depression. In the second quarter, California replaced Florida as the state dominating Realtor.com’s quarterly list of top turnaround towns. In the first quarter of 2012, seven Florida markets and one California market made the top 10 positions in the Realtor.com ranking. Just one market in Florida and six in California now dominate the first 10 positions. The California Association of Realtors reports prices continued to improve, with the median home price posting both month-over-month and year-over-year gains for the fourth consecutive month in June.
Another signal that the housing market is turning around: Statewide, more than 7,700 homes sold for $1 million or more in the April-June quarter, a nearly 80 percent jump from the previous three months and 18.5 percent higher than a year earlier, according to Dataquick. The quarterly sales figure was the highest since the July-September period in 2007. Part of the jump could be due to a general increase in prices, pushing a home that had been valued in the high six figures to $1 million or more. The vast majority of homes – 5,100 – were in the $1-million to $2-million range, while only 188 were sold for $5 million of more. As you can see from the list below, provided by DataQuick , Manhattan Beach had the largest number of million-dollar sales in Southern California, followed by Newport Beach, Beverly Hills and Rolling Hills Estates. Ranking below is by ZIP code, location, number of sales in quarter and most expensive home.
Nearly seven years after the housing bubble burst, most indexes of house prices are bending up. The U.S. finally has moved beyond attention-grabbing predictions from housing “experts” that housing is bottoming. The numbers are now convincing. The reduced inventory of unsold homes is key. For the past couple of years, house prices have risen in the spring and then slumped; the declining supply of houses for sale is reason to believe that won’t happen again this year. Builders began work on 26% more single-family homes in May 2012 than the depressed levels of May 2011. The stock of unsold newly built homes is back to 2005 levels. In each of the past four quarters, housing construction has added to economic growth. Economists aren’t always right, but on this at least they agree: A new Wall Street Journal survey of forecasters found 44 believe the housing market has reached its bottom; only three don’t. Check out some of the graphs and charts: 
Though listing prices have risen modestly in four of the past five months, rent hikes are still outperforming home price increases in the majority of rental markets. According to Trulia, 84 out of the 100 largest metros had price increases, seasonally adjusted. “We saw asking prices start to rise in February and predicted that other home price indexes would report sales price increases this summer for those homes – and they have,” said Jed Kolko, Trulia’s Chief Economist. “Since February, asking prices showed solid gains in four out of five months, including in June, so I expect to see the sales-price indexes show further increases in the months to come. However, the modest asking price gains trailed rent increases. Furthermore, rent increases accelerated between March and June.
Negative equity, which is the result of homeowners owing more on their mortgages than their homes are worth, has always been viewed as a detriment to the housing economy because it freezes owners in their homes and makes them liable to foreclosure. At a recent panel at the National Association of Realtors conference, Zillow’s chief economist put a different spin on negative equity. Stan Humphries argued that current market conditions, when inventories are at record lows and negative equity afflicts 31.4 percent of all homeowners with a mortgage, negative equity is not only diminishing demand it is also reducing the available supply of homes for sale by making it impossible for owners to sell without taking a loss. Lower inventories lead to price increases and at some point values rise sufficiently to move number of owners above water, and making it possible for them to sell, resulting in a temporary increase in inventories. Prices might plateau temporarily until demand reduces inventories again and prices resume their climb. The expecttion is for median prices to rise ten percent on an annual basis a year from now.
City officials have noticed an uptick in new condominium projects in Hermosa Beach this year, continuing a trend that began in Manhattan Beach. Community Development Director Ken Robertson said his office has received six applications this year for condo projects, which range between two and four units. In 2009 and 2011, the city received just two applications for multi-unit condo projects. After having no condo projects in 2009, the city of Manhattan Beach approved a total of five in 2010 and 2011. Although no applications have been filed so far this year, Manhattan Beach building officials, expects that to change in the second half of the year. The number of new single family homes being built continues to increase over the past three years, and permits for home remodeling and additions are increasing by 30 percent year-to-year since 2010. In Hermosa, the number of new single family homes approved went from 8 in 2010 to 19 in 2011, with five so far this year. When you see this volume of application in a short period like this it really shows that things in the residential construction or development market are changing, Generally this is an indicator that more speculative type of development is going on rather than custom home remodels or custom home building.
Housing affordability conditions have reached the highest level since recordkeeping began in 1970, according to the National Association of Realtors®. NAR’s Housing Affordability Index rose to a record high 206.1 in January, based on the relationship between median home price, median family income and average mortgage interest rate. The higher the index, the greater the household purchasing power. An index of 100 is defined as the point where a median-income household has exactly enough income to qualify for the purchase of a median-priced existing single-family homeThe projections for the affordability index for all of 2012 will be at an annual high, with little movement in mortgage interest rates or home prices during the year. Read the full story at Realor.org: 
